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Market opportunity

POLY4 has significant market opportunity and the ability to reshape the fertilizer market. Its unique multi-nutrient content enables a wide range of options for substitution of existing fertilizer products. It is ideal for NPK blending and can reduce blenders’ input costs and improve farmers yields.

The size of the market opportunity for POLY4 is framed in three key areas – as a substitute for existing products, to meet unmet market demand for high-value products and to provide premium performance.

POLY4 commercial development

Sirius Minerals has signed offtake agreements with leading commercial organisations in South East Asia, China, Africa, North America and Central America. The Company has secured take-or-pay offtake agreements totalling 4.7 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of POLY4 sales both into the fertilizer and animal feed markets.

In addition, options within existing offtake agreements of 1.15 Mtpa bring the total to 5.8 Mtpa under these agreements, that are for between five to ten years.


The total global market opportunity for POLY4 is 440 Mtpa.
The map below describes market opportunities for our product in each region.

POLY4 NORTH AMERICA

Over 8 M ha of CI- sensitive crops are produced in the US alone. Market opportunity of 58* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent as a premium specification product supplying CI-free K, along with S, Mg and Ca. 
2.5% market share: 1.5 Mtpa.

1.55 Mtpa offtake agreements signed.

POLY4 EUROPE

Significant contestable market size of 70* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent with high demand for multi-nutrient K2O, S and MgO products. European regulations enforce emission control creating S shortages. POLY4 has the lowest CO2e emission and supplies S. 
2.5% market share: 1.8 Mtpa.

POLY4 INDIA

Market growth opportunity of 33* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent to meet the increased need for S, Mg and Ca and K2O requirement at high inclusion rates in NPK blends. 
2.5% market share: 0.8 Mtpa.

POLY4 CHINA

Market demand forecast of primary substitute fertilizer products expressed in POLY4 equivalent is 110* Mtpa. Chinese fertilizer policy provides POLY4 the unique opportunity to be essential part of balanced and sustainable 
fertilization practices. 
2.5% market share: 2.8 Mtpa.

1.5 Mtpa offtake agreements signed.

* POLY4 total demand forecast 2025, Source: CRU

POLY4 LATIN AMERICA

Market opportunity in the region of 18* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent to be valuable NPK feedstock supplying K2O, S, Mg and meeting CI-free demand. 
2.5% market share: 0.5 Mtpa.

0.55 Mtpa offtake agreements signed.

POLY4 BRAZIL

Substantial market opportunity in Brazil of 59* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent. Many areas of the region are deficient in S and Mg contained in POLY4
2.5% market share: 1.5 Mtpa.

POLY4 AFRICA

Market growth opportunity of 5* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent. Our product can boost yields, even at low application rates, by providing balanced nutrition and improving fertilizer practice. 
2.5% market share: 0.1 Mtpa.

POLY4 SOUTH EAST ASIA

Significant market growth opportunity of 51* Mtpa in POLY4 equivalent to meet unmet demand in CI-fee K2O, S and/or Mg. 
2.5% market share: 1.3 Mtpa.

0.75 Mtpa offtake agreements signed.

Product substitution

POLY4’s unique multi-nutrient content enables a wide range of opportunities for existing fertilizer products substitution. In addition, the demand for multi-nutrient fertilizers continues to grow at the farm gate.

According to analysis by industry specialists the contestable market opportunity for POLY4 as a substitute for existing products will be 440 Mtpa in 2025, far more than the project's 20 Mtpa full production capacity.

Unmet market demand

The farming community increasingly acknowledges the need of balanced fertilization. There is also a significant unmet demand for chloride-free potassium: 32% of total potassium consumption is used on chloride-sensitive crops while supply of chloride-free potassium is only 9%.

According to analysis by industry specialists, the increasing demand for key attributes of POLY4, such as its suitability for use on chloride sensitive crops and its ability to address sulphur and magnesium soil deficiencies, accounts for a total 130 Mtpa of POLY4 demand potential.

Product performance

POLY4 is a premium product: it increases yield on broad-acre and high-value crops, improves crop quality and health and soil structure.

Demand for multi-nutrient fertilizers continues to grow and as the performance of POLY4 becomes more widely validated, it is expected that so will its ability to attract a premium.